Best Jobs for the 21st Century (2006)

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Output and employment growth is also projected to be weak in a number of commercial and non-commercial services industries. The main factors expected to weigh on those industries are:. These two effects have impacted the employment growth distribution among high- and low-skill occupations. Figure 3 shows the average annual employment change in high- and low skilled occupations over the periods to , to and to This was largely due to the recession that mostly impacted employment in low-skill occupations. However, this projected trend is a continuation of what has been observed over the past 20 years as the Canadian economy became more knowledge-intensive, automatized and with stronger health care needs.

High-skill occupations represented The demand for low-skill jobs is also projected to grow. The expected demand in health; mining and oil extraction; accommodation and food services; as well as the recovery of some manufacturing industries that had been suppressed for a lengthy time, will boost employment growth in low-skill occupations that are concentrated in these industries. The strong growth in high-skill occupations is mostly due to strong employment growth in those that usually require university education. Figure 5 shows the distribution of employment growth among skill levels over the projection period to Over the projection period, the largest share of new job openings as a result of economic growth employment growth is expected to be in occupations that usually require a college education or apprenticeship training skill level B , mostly due to the employment size of this group.

However, occupations that usually require a university education skill level A are expected to have the fastest overall employment growth. This is mostly as a result of strong growth expectations in occupations related to professional services in health, as well as the information and technology sectors. In comparison, in , the largest share of employment could be found in occupations that usually require a college education or apprenticeship training skill level B , followed by those that usually require high school education skill level C.

Occupations that usually require a university education skill level A , only on-the-job training skill level D , and management occupations ranked third, fourth and fifth, respectively.

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This can be observed in Table 1, which shows the employment distribution and projected employment growth by skill level of the period to The faster employment growth in high-skill occupations will result in a slight increase in the share of high-skill occupations within total employment. This can be observed in Figure 6, which shows the distribution of employment by skill level over the periods to and to The growing demand for healthcare and the structural change towards a more knowledge-based economy are expected to push the demand for high-skill occupations up over the projection period.

Indeed, employment growth is expected to be faster among technical and professional services in health and natural and applied sciences occupations. With the exception of senior management occupations, growth for management occupations is projected to be about average, but employment in highly skill management positions for example managers in health, technology and engineering is expected to register stronger growth.

Employment in senior management occupations has declined since , mostly because of the budget deficits reduction initiatives recorded by the various levels of government and because of the financial crisis. This situation is expected to continue at a slower pace over the projection period as austerity measures ease. A weaker economic outlook in the agriculture, forestry, logging, fishing, hunting and trapping, as well as in some manufacturing sector such as paper, printing, textile and clothing manufacturing, is expected to limit employment growth in low-skill occupations that are related to these industries.

Finally, occupations related to office and clerical work are expected to also have below average employment growth. This is mostly due to the constant introduction of technologies that continue to transform secretarial work, leading to the specialization of administrative duties. Note: Annual growth rate for total employment is 0. Boundaries were set at plus and minus 4 percentage points of this growth rate.

At a more detailed occupational level 4-digit NOC groupings , Table 3 shows the 10 occupations that are expected to have the stronger employment growth over the projection period. Note 1: Occupations with a star are groupings of 4-digit occupations including 3-digit occupations which are considered as groups of 4-digit occupations. At a more detailed occupational level 4-digit NOC groupings , eight out of the ten occupations with the fastest projected employment growth are in the health sector NOCs , , , , , , and This reflects the fact that the population is aging and with this, the need for healthcare professionals and healthcare related occupations is expected to increase.

Another two occupations NOCs and are related to the information and technology sector, mostly due to the strong outlook expected in this growing industry. On the other hand, some manufacturing, primary and administrative occupations are projected to post the strongest employment declines.

Table 4 shows the 10 occupations that are expected to have the strongest employment decline rates over the projection period. For instance, the increased popularity of digital imaging has come at the expense of printing press operators jobs. The strongest employment decline is expected to be in banking, insurance and other financial clerks and collectors NOC The fast introduction of computerization in the financial sector is largely responsible for this.

As a result, this occupation has experienced strong job losses since , a trend that is only expected to moderate over the projection period. Machine learning and machine text reading are just some examples of technologies that are negatively impacting job opportunities in this occupation. Two NOC and out of these ten occupations are unique to the fishing sector.

Both occupations are relatively small. Fish supply constraints and the various quotas and moratorium as well as productivity growth from the increased use of larger vessels are expected to continue to limit growth in fishing over the projection period. Finally, the expected employment decline in Administrative assistants NOC is due to ongoing office automation, which makes many of those positions redundant. In addition, the specialization of administrative tasks has transferred some of these jobs to more specialized administrative occupations. In fact, occupations related to general office support are also expected to have poor employment growth expectations.

Table 4 presents the top ten occupations with the largest demployment declines over the projection period. Economic growth is not the only source of job openings. Replacement demand is the other major source of job openings.

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These openings are vacancies created by the following factors:. Figure 7 shows these sources of replacement demand over the periods to , to and to This figure shows that indeed retirements represent an increasingly important source of replacement demand. Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market. Text version of Figure 7: Sources of Replacement Demand over the Periods , and in thousands. Retirement growth and employment growth were comparable prior to , but the former started outpacing the latter as of As a result, the overall retirement rate, expressed as the number of retirees per employed worker, grew from 1.

This overall retirement rate is expected to surpass and remain above 2. Accordingly, an acceleration in the number of retirees is expected over the coming decade, with even larger numbers beyond the projection horizon The annual average number of retirements is projected to rise from , a year over the period , to an average of , a year over the projection period. As a result, retirements are expected to account not only for the largest , but also an increasing source of the replacement demand and the total job openings.

This expected continued rise in the number of retirements and the overall retirement rates is explained by the aging of the Canadian population. This can be seen in Figure 9, which shows the share of the population of peopled that are over 50 years old and their retirement rate over the period to As more and more members of the baby boom generation reach retirement age, the proportion of the population that are 50 years old or older is expected to continue to increase.

Additionally, the upward trend in the retirement rates of these workers are expected to slowly continue, reaching 6. However, retirements are not evenly distributed amongst occupations. Indeed, high-skill occupations, which represented Figure 10 and Table 5 display the distribution of the projected number of retirements and rates by skill level over the projection period. Except for management occupations and those usually requiring only on-the-job training skill level D , these proportions reflect the relative employment distribution between skill levels.

Hence, the majority of the retirements are projected to be in the skill levels that have the largest proportions of employment. That is, they are expected to be in larger quantities in occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship certificate skill level B and in those usually requiring high school education skill level C.

Retirements will generate a disproportionately larger number of openings in management occupations as these workers tend to be significantly older than average, but tend to retire just at a slightly older age.

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On the other hand, workers in occupations that usually require only on-the-job training tend to be younger than average and tend to retire at a similar age, translated into a lower volume of retirements. Therefore, projected retirement rates are the highest in management occupations and the lowest in occupations usually requiring on-the-job training skill level D. Nevertheless, the distribution of retirements by skill level is projected to remain relatively stable over the period when compared to the preceding decade.

This can be seen in Figure 11, which displays the distribution of retirements by skill level over the periods to and to Table 6 shows the 10 occupations that are expected to have the largest number of retirements over the projection period. Similarly, at the detailed occupational level 4-digit NOC groupings , occupations with the largest projected need to replace retirees are mostly due to their employment size.

In fact, half of the top ten occupations have retirement rates that are similar to the average.

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However, retail and wholesale trade managers NOC , administrative officers NOC , janitors, caretakers and building superintendents NOC , and general office support workers have higher than average retirement rates. On the other hand, the occupation of retail salespersons NOC is expected to have a below average retirement rate. However, retirement pressures are also measured using the the retirement rate, as the proportion of the number of retirements per worker in each of the occupations.

Table 7 shows the top 10 occupations with the highest expected retirement rates over the projection period. Occupations with the strongest projected retirement pressures as per their retirement rates are concentrated in management and in office administration occupations, reflecting an older workforce in those areas of the labour market. Five out of the ten occupations with the highest retirement rates are in management, where the workforce tends to be older and tend to retire at a similar or younger age than the average. On the other hand, Table 8 shows the 10 occupations with the lowest expected retirement rates over the projection period.

Four of the ten occupations with the lowest retirement rates are expected to be in sales and service occupations, which employ a younger workforce. Fagenson E. Fagenson-Eland E. Fels A. Fitzgerald L. What do We Need to Know? Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. Fletcher J. Fondas N. Gallos J.

Handbook of Career Theory. Gersick C. Gordon J. Hackett G. Hall D. Hamilton E. Hearn J. Helfat C. Hewlett S. Hopkins M. Handbook on Women in Business and Management. Huang Q. Hurley A. Ibarra H. Jacobson S. Judiesch, M. Kanter R. Kirchmeyer C.

A New Breed

Larwood L. Lefkowitz J. Lepine I. Lyness K. Mainiero L. Marshall J. Martins L. Mattis M. Mavin S. McDonald P. Melamed T. Moore D. Morrison, A. White, E. Netemeyer R. Oakley J.


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